After 4 nervous stages the GC contenders will now have a “quiet” day at the office, so will their teams. The sprinter teams will have the strength and energy to control the race and keep the pace high towards the end, regardless of the weather. A late turn 500 metres from the finishing line favors riders with acceleration, good positioning and technical skills. A strong team is important in this stage but positioning skills are even more important, since a train is not supposed to turn 90 degrees right before it reaches the station. The favourites for today’s stage, according to the current condition and the required skills mentioned above, are not the bookmakers favourites – but take notice that the bookies have missed all the winners so far in the first 4 stages.
My number 1 favourite for today is 24-year-old french sprinter Nacer Bouhanni comming in 6th in stage 4, beating in-form Bryan Coquard amongst others. Bouhanni’s 6th place in stage 4 was a big surprise, and injuries from former crashes can no longer be taken into consideration. Today’s finish is tailor made for this upcomming star with his great positioning skills and amazing acceleration which will benefit him in the slightly downhill finish.
The only one who can challenge him today will be the green jersey specialist Peter Sagan, who will be even more motivated for the sprint when he sees Cavendish and Greibel out of position before the last turn. Greibel’s train is a wreck, and Cavendish eager to show the world he is number 1, will get him into trouble. His train is good, but exhausted from yesterdays work for Tony Martin. Kristoff has been unlucky so far, and he lacks the needed acceleration for the win. He wants to win tomorrow, but life aint a fairy tale. Degenkolb is tired from yesterday, and the finish doesn’t suit him at all, and allthough the finish is okay for Arnaud Demare, he has simply not shown any proof of existence so far in the tour.
Tour de France 2015 